Several polls are now indicating this is a two-point or less race

[KeithKSR]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch

http://zogbyanalytics.com/news/756-clinton-and-trump-in-statistical-tie-trump-has-closed-the-gap-among-older-millennials

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/08/18/la-times-tracking-poll-clinton-44-percent-trump-43-4-percent/

[CitizenBBN]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch

http://zogbyanalytics.com/news/756-clinton-and-trump-in-statistical-tie-trump-has-closed-the-gap-among-older-millennials

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/08/18/la-times-tracking-poll-clinton-44-percent-trump-43-4-percent/

People know hillary is a crook, they don't want to vote for her but Trump opens his mouth and convinces them to. If he'd get on message and act the least bit presidential be could still win.

[Doc]

No shock since Trump hasnt gone off script in the last week

[badrose]

He's been apologetic about some of the things he's said as well. I expect he'll be slightly in the lead in the national polls next week.

[suncat05]

No shock since Trump hasnt gone off script in the last week
Now, if he'll just keep doing that and keep the 'big picture' in mind. Even though neither is very likeable.

[badrose]

Now, if he'll just keep doing that and keep the 'big picture' in mind. Even though neither is very likeable.

I think you're wrong. (if you meant "likely")

[suncat05]

No, I was speaking of the two contestants. And while you may be right about him not being able to stay on message I have noticed a change in his demeanor and the way he is delivering his message. And I believe it is a big improvement.
At the end of the day, it is not only the message, but how the message is delivered. I like what I have seen this last week or so.

[badrose]

I think he WILL be able to stay on message. He's gotten serious about winning. If he touts his plan and lets Pence be the attack dog he'll win.

[KeithKSR]

Hillary is sitting out another weekend of campaigning. I'm beginning to think she may have some health issues that could cost her.

[suncat05]

Hillary is sitting out another weekend of campaigning. I'm beginning to think she may have some health issues that could cost her.

That.......or as Trump keeps saying, "the fix is in" and she doesn't see the need to exert herself.

[Darrell KSR]

I think this is right.

Now is the time to be working all angles, all the time, particularly in this election.


Hillary is sitting out another weekend of campaigning. I'm beginning to think she may have some health issues that could cost her.

[DanISSELisdaman]

I can't get the thought out of my mind that in the end, neither Hillary or Trump will be president. I expect one of two scenarios to happen. Either BLM and other radical groups cause enough problems for Obama to declare martial law (if Trump wins) and give himself 4 more years as president by executive order or more likely, Clinton wins the presidency and Obama turns his wolves loose on her and she is indicted for the crimes of the last 20 years, before being sworn in. In this case I don't think either her vice or the Speaker of the house would legally be able to become president since she had not been inaugurated and again, Obama has the option to give himself 4 more years by executive order.

[badrose]

I can't get the thought out of my mind that in the end, neither Hillary or Trump will be president. I expect one of two scenarios to happen. Either BLM and other radical groups cause enough problems for Obama to declare martial law (if Trump wins) and give himself 4 more years as president by executive order or more likely, Clinton wins the presidency and Obama turns his wolves loose on her and she is indicted for the crimes of the last 20 years, before being sworn in. In this case I don't think either her vice or the Speaker of the house would legally be able to become president since she had not been inaugurated and again, Obama has the option to give himself 4 more years by executive order.

Stephen King has nothing on you.

[suncat05]

That martial law declaration would be BEFORE the election, because in doing so habeus corpus and all civil liberties are suspended indefinitely. If he really thought and believed that Trump was going to win. No election, Obama appoints himself POTUS by Executive Order indefinitely. Who's going to stop him? Congress? STHU! The military? After all of the purging of all the general officers he has done, the only ones left are his syncopats. Individual state National Guard and Reserve units? He will have already ordered the confiscation of all of their weapons and ordnances, if he hasn't done that already. Individual state Governors? Yeah, may as well be the Little Rascals.
He cannot let the election happen, otherwise national business has to move forward. He cannot just "invalidate" a national general election. If the election is held and a winner declared. But if he were to move beforehand, then he is holding the keys to the kingdom. Literally.

Think about it. Try to wrap your heads around that thought for a second or two.

[Doc]

If you haven't been listening to THE DONALD'S speeches lately, you are missing something. It's a 360 plus another 180 degree turnaround. He is really a very good orator when he stays on script. He has good speech writers and keeps ones interest. IMO he knocked it out of the park in VA today

[CitizenBBN]

If you haven't been listening to THE DONALD'S speeches lately, you are missing something. It's a 360 plus another 180 degree turnaround. He is really a very good orator when he stays on script. He has good speech writers and keeps ones interest. IMO he knocked it out of the park in VA today

If he'd stayed on message from the start, and at least since the convention, I think he is able to jog this one in by 4-5 points. But with the hole he dug to start the one on one race I don't know if he can make it back.

It will take him doing this from here on out, winning the debates while looking Presidential, and ideally something blowing up in Hillary's face.

[dan_bgblue]

I think there is a large group of voters just waiting for him to be normal, and not a blabbering ninny. If he can do that until the election, he can solidify that base of people that are hoping and win without the witch getting her broom hacked and winding up in Iran on halloween. jmho

[Catonahottinroof]

Agree. I also think there is a rather large segment of the population that just will not vote because they are so unhappy with the choices.

I think there is a large group of voters just waiting for him to be normal, and not a blabbering ninny. If he can do that until the election, he can solidify that base of people that are hoping and win without the witch getting her broom hacked and winding up in Iran on halloween. jmho

[CitizenBBN]

Agree. I also think there is a rather large segment of the population that just will not vote because they are so unhappy with the choices.

If unhappiness with the options means not voting this will be the lowest turnout in history. Not as a percentage, in raw numbers less than when there were just 13 states and only male property owners were eligible. lol.

[StuBleedsBlue2]

It's all about the State polling. (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-national-polls-show-the-race-tightening-but-state-polls-dont/?ex_cid=2016-forecast)

Clinton is off her highs, but she still has a very commanding lead.

5695

[Doc]

The Hillary Clinton Poll

http://pngimg.com/upload/snake_PNG4044.png



The Bill Clinton Poll

https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/41y%2BvHeHrOL.jpg

[KeithKSR]

Trump leads in the LA Times poll. http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trailguide-updates-trump-gains-ground-against-clinton-1471817853-htmlstory.html

I think polls that are using the 2008 and 2012 turnout models will show Hillary much higher than she actually is. I'd expect her turnout to be down from what Obama had in those elections.

[CitizenBBN]

Stay on message (which needs to be mostly economics and terrorism, not law and order IMO, but it's survivable), stay humble, and don't get in the way of Hillary's problems hurting her. if she has a problem he bails her out with his own problem.

Still not sure he or the GOP will have the ground game to pull it off, but maybe with that and Hillary getting in some hot water over one of her dozen criminal enterprises may do it.

[StuBleedsBlue2]

Trump leads in the LA Times poll. http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trailguide-updates-trump-gains-ground-against-clinton-1471817853-htmlstory.html

I think polls that are using the 2008 and 2012 turnout models will show Hillary much higher than she actually is. I'd expect her turnout to be down from what Obama had in those elections.

I'm not saying that the LA Times poll is inaccurate, but do you understand how that one works?

This article (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/09/upshot/a-favorable-poll-for-donald-trump-has-a-major-problem.html) details the methodology, and it's potential flaws. I do agree with the final assessment, that this poll right now as we can understand it, is a better trend analyzer than it is a reflection of who is ahead. A shift of 3 percentage points towards Trump is a very fair assessment of the current trend. Polls of polls are showing that shift, from an 8-9 pt lead to a 5-6 point lead for Clinton. State polling is still confirming a 70 pt electoral win.

Really, it all comes down to 2 states. Florida AND Ohio. If Trump wins those 2, he's the next President. If he doesn't, then he's going to have to take 3-4 battleground states. For him to do that, it will take national momentum. He's wasting his time in Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado to name a few.

Winning both Florida and Ohio are doable, even though he faces some fairly consistent negative polling in those states.

It's partially about staying on message, that's important for him, but he needs to actually be in the right states and talking to the right audience is a bigger factor, IMO.

[Darrell KSR]

If you haven't been listening to THE DONALD'S speeches lately, you are missing something. It's a 360 plus another 180 degree turnaround. He is really a very good orator when he stays on script. He has good speech writers and keeps ones interest. IMO he knocked it out of the park in VA today
He is nailing it. Has had a great two weeks of staying on message.