Will Obama get out of office before South Korea falls?

[CitizenBBN]

If the NK finally has a bomb, the invasion clock is formally ticking. The whole goal of being a nuclear power for them is to provide a nuclear response so they can force any conflict to remain conventional. Under that nuclear umbrella they can quickly sweep into South Korea.

IMO the US knows this, which is why we've moved our troops back physically for some years, but what we've lacked is the wherewithal to end their nuclear dreams. Clinton partnered with Carter to miss an opportunity many years ago, Bush II never did more than allow things to stay status quo, and Obama has emboldened them and taken even less action than Bush II.

In the end, if the NK can provide a nuclear threat to the US mainland with ICBMs, they will be able to invade the South and insure the US doesn't use a nuclear option, and of course we'll quickly lose a conventional conflict b/c I think they north is right to think we won't engage in all out war again like the last time, and will pull out and let them have it.

[PedroDaGr8]

If the NK finally has a bomb, the invasion clock is formally ticking. The whole goal of being a nuclear power for them is to provide a nuclear response so they can force any conflict to remain conventional. Under that nuclear umbrella they can quickly sweep into South Korea.

IMO the US knows this, which is why we've moved our troops back physically for some years, but what we've lacked is the wherewithal to end their nuclear dreams. Clinton partnered with Carter to miss an opportunity many years ago, Bush II never did more than allow things to stay status quo, and Obama has emboldened them and taken even less action than Bush II.

In the end, if the NK can provide a nuclear threat to the US mainland with ICBMs, they will be able to invade the South and insure the US doesn't use a nuclear option, and of course we'll quickly lose a conventional conflict b/c I think they north is right to think we won't engage in all out war again like the last time, and will pull out and let them have it.
North Korea having a hydrogen bomb is very scary, in and of itself. That being said, their conventional army is a almost a joke. Most of it is 1960s, or earlier, Soviet/Chinese technology. Yes, they have a hydrogen bomb but that's because it is easier to make one of something high tech than upgrade their entire military. It's also dollar for dollar, the most likely to get what they want (capitulation and respect) if they don't over play their hand. Their military is ill-trained to the point that in a full scale invasion they would be basically throwing body after body. It is uncertain how many of their military installations are even functional anymore. Even if 100% are functional, Seoul has suitable defenses to destroy most, if not all, of the shells and rockets launched at them. The surrounding areas are the ones likely to be more affected than Seoul itself. Keep in mind, South Korea is no slouch they have a similar sized army to North Korea (though NK is still bigger by a bit), better trained, with much more modern munitions and technology.

I think you underestimate the value of South Korea on the global market. The financial string pullers would force many governments to get involved. This likely includes China, which has been getting VERY tired of NKs crap.

What this boils down to in the long run, I'm not sure but it isn't quite the disaster flick that you mention. They just lack the entire ability and South Korea is too valuable. One scenario I think is plausible is More if NK tries to invade, China takes the whole peninsula and sorts things out. China is much more friendly with Seoul than they used to be. Plus they don't want the rush of refugees from NK that a new Korean war would cause.

[suncat05]

My money says that if NK was to invade SK that SK would suffer heavy casualties but kick NK's behinds. With a minimum of American involvement.
The force we have there is token in nature. It's basically for show, but to remind the NK's that the SK's are our allies and that we will support their efforts. Just like the Chinese do with NK.
I do, however, agree that China steps in and oversees any developments because you can be sure the current resident of the Oval Office won't want to do anything to help an American ally.

[PedroDaGr8]

Having looked at the data a bit more, I think they are blustering. They don't have a hydrogen bomb. They have a bomb that uses isotopes of Hydrogen, namely deuterium and/or tritium as a booster to a standard nuclear weapon. This is VERY easy to do, you basically just add it to the normal core. It enhances the effects off the nuclear reaction significantly but is a FAR FAR cry from an actual hydrogen bomb. The difference is in the scale, this was still a kiloton weapon, real hydrogen bombs are megaton scale. So as usual they are playing loose with their definitions to try to instill fear.

[CitizenBBN]

Pedro I meant to post later that I do think they are probably bluffing. That's a very NK strategy and it looks like the blast wasn't big enough.

Re the rest, I imagine you will be proven right, but I have serious doubts about our commitment to fight in the battle, and even some doubts about resolve within the SK populace (far less than the doubt I have about us, which is extensive), and I also have my doubts about the NK's ability to make rational decisions.

Mostly I have been deeply frustrated by this Lord Chamberlain approach towards NK ever since Clinton. it has allowed them to stay in power and not just remain a threat to us and our allies but also to perpetrate one of the great human rights disasters in human history.

I'm actually surprised they don't have a bomb yet, as well as Iran.